For the third time in less than a decade, the Italian national football team will not take part in the FIFA World Cup. An absence that, beyond its sporting and symbolic weight, produces measurable effects on the economy and the collective wellbeing of the country.
Italy out of the World Cup: what is the cost?
In Italy, football is a ritual — and the national team even more so: it is the bar filling up on Sunday evening, children cheering without yet understanding the offside rule, grandparents recalling 1982. The national team is an intangible asset of collective identity, shared memory and a sense of belonging that spans generations and regions. For the third consecutive time — after 2018 and 2022 — that scene will not take place. An unprecedented negative record for a four-time world champion. We have estimated what this absence means through a socio-economic impact analysis.
Twelve years off the global football stage: the context
Italy’s last participation in a World Cup dates back to 2014, in Brazil. Since then, 12 years away from the most important football stage in the world. Two clarifications.
In 2026, the tournament will feature 48 teams instead of 32 and will be hosted primarily by the United States, alongside Canada and Mexico: this makes Italy’s exclusion even more striking. The FIFA prize pool distributed among participating national teams amounts to 727 million dollars, but Italy will receive none of it.
The national team is the main media and commercial driver of Italian football. Each absence from the global stage structurally weakens the entire ecosystem. The damage accumulates. Brand erosion becomes entrenched.
Italy’s elimination from the World Cup: socio-economic impact
The macroeconomic analysis was conducted using a SAM (Social Accounting Matrix) model, an internationally recognised tool for assessing economic and social impacts, calibrated on ISTAT data with a breakdown into 63 sectors and at a regional territorial level. Social impact was measured by applying the theory of change to collective sports participation. The monetisation of benefits was carried out using market proxies and estimates of willingness to pay through stated and revealed preference techniques.
The demand shock: €222 million not spent
The starting point of the analysis is the initial demand shock: the domestic spending that will not occur due to Italy’s non-participation in the tournament. Bars and restaurants, betting, FIFA prizes, merchandising: €222 million that will not enter the Italian economy. This shock would then propagate through the supply chain and distributed incomes, amplifying direct effects through indirect and induced impacts. The calculated multiplier is 1.38: for every euro of lost spending, the Italian economy fails to generate €1.38 in GDP.
Economic impact: €321 million in GDP not generated
The initial demand shock spreads throughout the entire production chain, subtracting €321 million in GDP and €656 million in total output from the Italian economy. Households lose €313 million in income — from both labour and capital — while the State forgoes €89 million in tax revenue. In terms of employment, 3,679 Full-Time Equivalent jobs in entertainment, hospitality, betting and related sectors will not materialise.
Social impact: the value of what is harder to quantify
The economic impact is significant. But it is the social impact that reveals the true scale of what it means not to be there. The total value of unrealised social benefits amounts to €1.5 billion. The largest component is national legacy (€715 million): collective sense of belonging, international visibility and reputational benefits that can only be built by being present on the global stage. This is followed by the missed boost to sports participation (€375 million), with implications for public health and the prevention of risky behaviours; the hedonic value (€266 million) generated by collectively watching matches; and finally social cohesion (€180 million), which every national team fixture fosters across the country through intergenerational dialogue and stronger social ties.
What these figures tell us
Combining economic and social impact helps to understand the true value of an event such as the FIFA World Cup — that is, the cost of not taking part.
€321 million in lost GDP is a measurable figure, distributed across specific sectors and regions. €1.5 billion in unrealised social benefits is an equally real loss, even if less visible in national accounts.
What is Italian football truly worth today? Perhaps the right question is another: how much is it costing us not to invest in it properly?
Read also our study on the global socio-economic impact of football.
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